Will traffic from search engines to your website drop 25% by 2026 as a result of the rise of generative AI answer engines? That’s what Gartner, a technological research and consulting firm, is predicting.

Why we care. SEO and PPC are incredibly valuable. Search traffic is what can lead to revenue and profit (whether via converting that traffic to leads, sales, or whatever type of conversion matters to your brand).

The emergence of generative AI has sparked real concerns that Google’s Search Generative Experience (and other AI-powered answer engines) may “take away” traffic that previously would have gone to your site, or significantly raise costs for advertisers. Many also suspect that ChatGPT is already capturing market share from Google.

The prediction. Gartner believes people will increasingly turn to generative AI conversational assistants (e.g., ChatGPT, Claude) rather than traditional search engines (e.g., Google). If this trend continues, it could represent a major shift in both paid and organic search marketing strategies. According to Gartner:

• “By 2026, traditional search engine volume will drop 25%, with search marketing losing market share to AI chatbots and other virtual agents.”

But. A prediction (this one was shared today in a press release based on full research requiring a subscription) is still just an estimate. While Gartner's predictions are usually well-informed, they remain educated guesses.

Respected analyst firms rarely face scrutiny when their predictions miss the mark—because few people go back to verify them. For example, Gartner once predicted that 50% of consumers would limit engagement or abandon social media by 2025—but later softened that claim.

2028 prediction. Previously, Gartner had forecasted that “organic search traffic will decrease by 50% or more as consumers adopt generative AI-powered search.” This was partly based on a survey (of 299 consumers conducted in August 2023), which found:

• 79% of respondents expected to use AI-enhanced search within the next year.
• 70% of consumers had at least some level of trust in generative AI search results.

In light of that earlier prediction, Gartner advised brands to prepare for disruption caused by AI-driven search:

• “Marketing leaders whose brands rely on SEO should consider allocating resources to test alternative channels in order to diversify,” said Emily Weiss, senior principal researcher at Gartner.

Not guaranteed. It may be that Gartner’s current forecast is spot-on—we’ll know definitively in 2026. But I strongly suggest reading Gartner’s predictions the same way you’d read a ranking factor correlation study published by an SEO tool or platform. It might be interesting, potentially informative or even directionally useful—but not infallible.

Preparing for AI search. So what if Gartner is right? Search Engine Land has published multiple articles offering insights, strategies, and tips to help marketers get ready for Google SGE and AI-powered search. Below are some links to those resources:

• Generative AI in search: What search marketers should prepare for
• How AI will affect the future of search
• Future-proof your SERP presence: 6 areas to focus on
• Preparing for Google SGE: Essential guide for marketers
• How Search Generative Experience works and why retrieval-augmented generation is our future
• How Google SGE will impact your traffic – and 3 SGE recovery case studies
• How will Google’s Search Generative Experience impact PPC marketing?
• Google SGE impact by industry and emerging features
• SEO through the Google SGE lens: What’s changing?
• How to prepare for Google SGE: Actionable tips for SEO success

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