The golden age of smartphones has passed? Future Outlook

Technology enthusiasts often complain that modern mobile phones are the same and lack of innovation. Although manufacturers are to blame, we also play an important role. Let us review the development history of smartphones and explore the causes of the current situation.

The Golden Age of Smartphones

In 1973, Motorola engineer Martin Cooper made historic calls with the DynaTAC 8000X on the streets of New York. This "brick" phone opened the era of wireless networks. Nearly 20 years later, IBM Simon was released, becoming the world's first smartphone, equipped with a resistive touch screen and simple applications. Today, although it is a hundred times more powerful, the core function of modern smartphones is still used as an application portal.

The slow early innovation is due to three reasons: technical limitations, insufficient cognition and lack of markets.

In 2007, the release of the first generation of iPhones marked the real start of the smartphone industry. Various manufacturers followed suit, setting off a wave of innovation, striving to surpass Apple. Although most attempts failed, competition has promoted rapid development and consumers have benefited greatly.

Let's review some of the landmark smartphones and the technological innovations it brings (mainstream commercial phones only):

Since the release of the iPhone, new revolutionary technologies have emerged every year. Today, almost all high-end flagship models have these functions. It is the joint efforts of many manufacturers that have made modern smartphones successful.

We got everything we wanted, but we were dissatisfied

Innovating so fast in the past two decades is partly because each iteration aims to solve the pain points of users: slow charging, poor image quality, weak signal, thick borders, video jitter, inability to zoom, and more. The more problems a product solves, the easier it is to succeed.

But now, at least in terms of hardware, we have nothing to complain about. The complaints now are more about service quality, such as software update frequency, after-sales service and maintenance costs.

Ordinary users only need their phone to work properly, and budget phones can already meet this need. Mobile phones no longer need cool features to attract users, reliability and ease of use are the key. This has resulted in limited space for manufacturers to innovate in software and hardware, and instead compete for the ecosystem.

Diminishing returns and changing consumer preferences

Many of the features that were once exclusive to flagships have now been put into mid-range models, such as glass back panels, high-speed chips and waterproof and dust-proof functions. This is because smartphones also follow the law of diminishing returns, and the innovation speed of flagship phones will slow down soon.

Due to the limited interior space of the phone, the battery and sensor cannot be infinitely larger. Manufacturers are beginning to focus on ecosystem construction and accessories such as wireless headphones and smartwatches. But it is not easy to do this well.

People are still buying new phones, but upgrades are much less frequent than they were a decade ago. “The durability and quality of the phone has improved significantly over the past five to ten years, so people can use the same phone for a long time,” Verizon CEO Hans Westerberg said in an interview with CNBC.

This means that it takes longer for manufacturers to get purchases from users again, which puts pressure on their profitability and leads to risk aversion behavior. Even if manufacturers want to innovate, business reality often hinders their development.

Oligopoly market restricts innovation

In the past, mobile phone comparisons were mainly based on its own functions. Now, people’s purchasing decisions also depend in part on the difficulty of switching ecosystems. For example, iPhone users may want to try out the camera and AI capabilities of Google Pixel, but are worried about losing the convenience of FaceTime, iMessage, and Apple services.

As the industry develops and matures, Apple and Samsung occupy most of the market share, many manufacturers are eliminated, and the threshold for new entrants is getting higher and higher. Brands such as LG, Panasonic, BlackBerry, Nokia, HTC, Razer, and Essential will either withdraw from the market or gradually lose their competitiveness.

Therefore, it is difficult for small businesses to rise in the industry. As of March 2025, Google's global smartphone market share was only 1.67%, although it developed the Android operating system and the Pixel series has developed to the ninth generation, and has accumulated rich industry experience even during the Nexus mobile phone period.

We still have a lot to look forward to

While smartphone growth has slowed, we should not ignore the progress that is happening.

Silicon-carbon batteries are expected to significantly improve battery life in the next few years; mobile phones with 8,000mAh batteries have appeared. Apple and Samsung are said to launch thinner phones such as the iPhone 17 Air and S25 Edge.

LG Innotek has invented a camera module that can provide a continuous optical zoom range of 4 to 9 times, which is expected to significantly improve the photography performance of mobile phones.

In addition, with the improvement of under-screen camera technology, we may eventually achieve full-screen displays without bangs. Folding phones are getting better and better, and once Apple releases its first foldable iPhone, it may accelerate its popularity.

We are no longer in the golden age of smartphones, but there is also a positive side to this: no matter which phone you buy today, it is unlikely that any basic features are missing. It’s hard to find a truly bad phone these days, which is a huge boon for consumers who don’t understand technology. We may take longer to wait for breakthrough innovation, but smartphones are not yet at the peak.

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