


Boeing: The world will need nearly 44,000 new commercial aircraft in the next 20 years
Jul 23, 2024 pm 06:55 PMThis website reported on July 22 that on the eve of the Farnborough Air Show, Boeing released its 2024 Civil Aviation Market Outlook (CMO), predicting that global airlines will need nearly 44,000 new civil aircraft by 2043.
The latest aircraft deliveries for the next 20 years are up 3% from last year’s forecast as air travel fully resumes. The outlook also predicts that emerging market and global single-aisle market demand will continue to be the main growth driver for the civil aviation industry.
According to the CMO, air passenger traffic will grow at an average annual rate of 4.7% over the next 20 years compared to 2023.
CMO forecast highlights for the next 20 years include:
<code> 全球民用機(jī)隊(duì)預(yù)計(jì)每年增長 3.2%,增速較航空運(yùn)量慢,因?yàn)楹娇展纠^續(xù)通過提高上座率和增加飛機(jī)每日使用時(shí)間來提高生產(chǎn)力。 擁有速度和可靠性優(yōu)勢的航空貨運(yùn)表現(xiàn)一直優(yōu)于其他貨運(yùn)形式,貨機(jī)機(jī)隊(duì)到 2043 年將增加三分之二,以支持每年 4.1% 的航空貨運(yùn)量增長。 </code>
Air travel trends:
<code>全球航空公司的平均票價(jià)與 20 年前幾乎相同,盡管整體物價(jià)翻了一番。 全球航空公司服務(wù)的航線數(shù)量已恢復(fù)到 2019 年的水平,其中近 20% 是新航線,這體現(xiàn)出航空業(yè)在充滿活力的市場中的適應(yīng)能力。 </code>
Key growth drivers:
<code> 新興市場在預(yù)測期內(nèi)回歸歷史增長趨勢,南亞地區(qū)客運(yùn)量將增長 7.4%,其次是東南亞(7.2%)和非洲(6.4%)。 </code>
Eurasia is expected to be the largest market by aircraft deliveries (% of total 22%), followed by North America (20%) and China (20%).
Single-aisle aircraft will account for 71% of the fleet in 2043, leveraging their flexibility to serve short and medium-haul routes, with a total of 33,380 new aircraft delivered previously.
The global wide-body fleet will more than double, with twin-aisle aircraft accounting for 44% of the Middle East fleet.
Service demand growth:
Boeing forecasts demand for civil aviation services to be worth $4.4 trillion, driven by repairs, modification programs and digital solutions to improve efficiency.
As air travel expands, especially in emerging markets, the civil aviation industry will need nearly 2.4 million new personnel, as well as related training to support new pilots, maintenance and cabin crew.
Note from this site: CMO has been published annually since 1961. As the oldest forecast report of its kind, CMO is known as the most comprehensive analysis of the civil aviation industry.
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