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Table of Contents
目錄
執(zhí)行摘要
深度流動性
持有時長分析
未實現(xiàn)利潤分析
市場成本分析
總結(jié)與結(jié)論
Home web3.0 The market with nearly 10 billion yuan of selling pressure remained motionless, and Bitcoin (BTC) directly pointed to 140,000?

The market with nearly 10 billion yuan of selling pressure remained motionless, and Bitcoin (BTC) directly pointed to 140,000?

Jul 31, 2025 pm 08:36 PM
git Bitcoin btc

目錄
  • 執(zhí)行摘要
  • 深度流動性
  • 持有時長分析
  • 未實現(xiàn)利潤分析
  • 市場成本分析
  • 總結(jié)與結(jié)論
?

近百億拋壓市場紋絲不動,比特幣(BTC)直指 14 萬?

上周末比特幣的流動性經(jīng)歷了一次重大考驗,一名早期投資者通過 Galaxy Digital 場外交易服務(wù)拋售了超過 8 萬枚 BTC。盡管如此,市場仍展現(xiàn)出強勁韌性,絕大多數(shù)投資者仍選擇持有,而非獲利實現(xiàn)賬面收益。

執(zhí)行摘要

上周末比特幣的流動性面臨嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn),一名早期大額投資者通過 Galaxy Digital 場外交易服務(wù)拋售了超過 8 萬枚 BTC。盡管這筆高達 96 億美元的賣盤對市場上漲造成壓力,但市場仍快速承接了巨量拋壓,價格短暫下跌至 11.5 萬美元后迅速企穩(wěn)于 11.9 萬美元,略低于歷史高點。

即便經(jīng)歷如此大規(guī)模的拋售事件,市場參與者持有的未實現(xiàn)利潤規(guī)模依然可觀。目前未實現(xiàn)利潤總額高達 1.4 萬億美元,流通供應(yīng)量中仍有 97% 處于盈利狀態(tài)。

根據(jù)多個鏈上估值模型顯示,比特幣價格目前處于 10.5 萬至 12.5 萬美元的區(qū)間震蕩。若實現(xiàn)有效突破,價格可能進一步上探 14.1 萬美元,鑒于該價位預(yù)計將出現(xiàn)大量未實現(xiàn)利潤兌現(xiàn),此處可能面臨顯著賣壓。

深度流動性

實現(xiàn)市值(Realized Cap)是鏈上分析的基礎(chǔ)指標(biāo),用于量化比特幣網(wǎng)絡(luò)中以美元計價的流動性總量。目前該指標(biāo)已突破 1.02 萬億美元,凸顯出該資產(chǎn)日益增長的流動性深度與市場厚度。

上周末,這項流動性承受了實際檢驗。一名比特幣早期投資者通過 Galaxy Digital 的服務(wù)拋售 8 萬枚 BTC(約合 96 億美元),可能通過市場拋售與場外交易混合方式進行。由此產(chǎn)生的賣壓將價格推低至 11.5 萬美元,隨后穩(wěn)定在 11.9 萬美元。

這一事件彰顯了比特幣即使在流動性通常較薄的周末交易時段,仍能消化巨額賣盤的能力,印證了市場結(jié)構(gòu)的穩(wěn)健性。

近百億拋壓市場紋絲不動,比特幣(BTC)直指 14 萬?

此次事件同時推動已實現(xiàn)凈盈虧指標(biāo)(Net Realized Profit/Loss)飆升至 37 億美元的歷史峰值。值得注意的是,該指標(biāo)的飆升先于周末拋售,反映了資金在最終分配前的提前移動。

由于該批代幣最初被實體調(diào)整算法標(biāo)記為內(nèi)部轉(zhuǎn)賬,后續(xù)通過 Galaxy Digital 進行的地址變動被記錄為具有經(jīng)濟意義的交易,即所有權(quán)變更。

近百億拋壓市場紋絲不動,比特幣(BTC)直指 14 萬?

近期獲利了結(jié)行為的激增推動已實現(xiàn)盈虧比率(Realized Profit/Loss Ratio)急劇加速,當(dāng)前實現(xiàn)利潤已達虧損的 571 倍。該數(shù)值處于極端高位,歷史上僅有 1.5% 的交易日高于此水平。

但解讀該信號需要審慎。雖然極端獲利了結(jié)行為可能伴隨價格頂部(如 2024 年 3 月 7.3 萬美元歷史高點時的情形),但這并非即時反應(yīng)。例如在 2024 年末突破 10 萬美元時,獲利了結(jié)峰值出現(xiàn)在 9.8 萬美元價位,但市場后續(xù)仍上漲 10% 至 10.7 萬美元才見頂。

這種滯后性表明,顯著升高的獲利了結(jié)量往往預(yù)示(但非立即導(dǎo)致)市場衰竭。它形成需要時間消化的供給壓力,市場反應(yīng)可能存在時滯。

近百億拋壓市場紋絲不動,比特幣(BTC)直指 14 萬?

持有時長分析

在消化大量長期休眠代幣后,長期持有者凈實現(xiàn)盈虧(Long-Term Holder Net Realized Profit/Loss)創(chuàng)下 25 億美元的歷史新高,超越此前 16 億美元的峰值。這標(biāo)志著比特幣歷史上最大規(guī)模的單次賣壓事件,一次極端的流動性壓力測試,但市場表現(xiàn)出驚人韌性,價格始終維持在歷史高點附近震蕩。

這進一步印證了比特幣市場在經(jīng)歷重大分配事件時非凡的承壓能力,此前本周期內(nèi)已見證過門頭溝賠償與德國政府拋售等考驗。

近百億拋壓市場紋絲不動,比特幣(BTC)直指 14 萬?

通過對比長期與短期持有者的供應(yīng)量比率,可見本輪周期三次歷史高點形成過程中均出現(xiàn)相同模式:初始積累階段后,總會伴隨向激進分配的急劇轉(zhuǎn)變。

當(dāng)前分配階段仍在持續(xù),LTH/STH 供應(yīng)比率持續(xù)收縮。過去 30 天該比率下降 11%,僅 8.6% 的交易日跌幅更為劇烈,凸顯投資者行為轉(zhuǎn)變的強度。

近百億拋壓市場紋絲不動,比特幣(BTC)直指 14 萬?

未實現(xiàn)利潤分析

盡管上周末面臨包括長期投資者大規(guī)模獲利了結(jié)在內(nèi)的顯著賣壓,比特幣市場仍保持異常穩(wěn)定。因此,絕大多數(shù)參與者仍持有可觀未實現(xiàn)利潤,97% 的流通供應(yīng)量當(dāng)前持倉成本低于現(xiàn)貨價格。

近百億拋壓市場紋絲不動,比特幣(BTC)直指 14 萬?

市場參與者持有的賬面收益總額(即未實現(xiàn)利潤)近期創(chuàng)下 1.4 萬億美元的歷史峰值。這表明多數(shù)投資者坐擁巨額浮盈,若價格繼續(xù)上漲,可能引發(fā)未來潛在的賣壓。

近百億拋壓市場紋絲不動,比特幣(BTC)直指 14 萬?

我們還可將未實現(xiàn)利潤市值占比作為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化指標(biāo)進行觀察。當(dāng)前該指標(biāo)再次突破 +2σ區(qū)間,歷史上該水平常與市場狂熱期及歷史頂部形成階段重合。這從標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化視角再次印證參與者持有顯著未實現(xiàn)利潤的現(xiàn)實。

這表明許多投資者對市場狀況持樂觀態(tài)度,這既是情緒的助推劑,也意味著后續(xù)獲利了結(jié)動機可能增強。

近百億拋壓市場紋絲不動,比特幣(BTC)直指 14 萬?

與往期周期不同的是當(dāng)前長期持有者仍掌握 53% 的財富。盡管該群體在本周期持續(xù)分配,但在未實現(xiàn)利潤已處于高位的環(huán)境下,這一比例仍保持可觀。

整體動態(tài)顯示長期持有者可能仍有進一步拋售。隨著價格升至足以激活深層休眠巨鯨代幣的誘人水平時,市場需要更多需求流入來吸收拋壓。

近百億拋壓市場紋絲不動,比特幣(BTC)直指 14 萬?

市場成本分析

通過比特幣成本基礎(chǔ)分布圖可見,11.7 萬 -12.2 萬美元區(qū)間存在顯著的成本基礎(chǔ)聚集。這表明大量投資者在該高價區(qū)間完成積累。

值得注意的是,現(xiàn)貨價格下方 11-11.5 萬美元區(qū)間存在交易量真空帶,這是價格快速拉升過程中未經(jīng)歷充分換手的結(jié)果。并非所有真空帶都需要回補,但該區(qū)域存在價格引力,市場可能需測試該支撐的有效性,這使其成為回調(diào)時需重點關(guān)注的區(qū)域。

近百億拋壓市場紋絲不動,比特幣(BTC)直指 14 萬?

短期持有者成本基礎(chǔ)(代表新進投資者的平均持倉成本)歷來是劃分局部牛熊市況的關(guān)鍵閾值。通過疊加標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差區(qū)間可增加統(tǒng)計維度:

  • STH CB +2σ: 14.16 萬美元
  • STH CB +1σ: 12.51 萬美元
  • STH 成本基礎(chǔ): 10.54 萬美元
  • STH CB -1σ: 9.21 萬美元

關(guān)鍵觀察在于比特幣價格始終高于短期持有者成本基礎(chǔ),這是市場走強的積極信號。此外本周期所有主要頂部結(jié)構(gòu)中,價格均在 +1σ區(qū)間遇阻,當(dāng)前格局亦不例外。

宏觀視角顯示在決定性突破前,比特幣可能維持 10.5 萬 -12.5 萬美元區(qū)間震蕩。若有效突破,14.1 萬美元區(qū)域(對應(yīng) +2σ區(qū)間)可能成為下一個強阻力位,此處鏈上指標(biāo)預(yù)示賣壓可能急劇增強。

近百億拋壓市場紋絲不動,比特幣(BTC)直指 14 萬?

通過分析短期持有者內(nèi)部子群組的成本基礎(chǔ),可構(gòu)建"快慢成本基礎(chǔ)帶"作為短期市場情緒的動量指標(biāo)。當(dāng)前價格仍高于所有短期子群組成本基礎(chǔ),顯示市場強度。值得注意的是,24 小時至 3 個月持倉者的成本基礎(chǔ)帶(11-11.7 萬美元)與成本基礎(chǔ)分布圖中的低量區(qū)高度重合。

多項獨立指標(biāo)的共振強化了該價格區(qū)域的重要性,暗示其可能成為回調(diào)時的關(guān)鍵支撐。

近百億拋壓市場紋絲不動,比特幣(BTC)直指 14 萬?

為深入觀測子群組動量,我們采用等權(quán)復(fù)合指標(biāo)衡量盈利子群組數(shù)量占比。該指標(biāo)長期高于均值并趨近 +1σ水平,表明當(dāng)前市場動量穩(wěn)健,多數(shù)新投資者仍處于盈利狀態(tài)。

近百億拋壓市場紋絲不動,比特幣(BTC)直指 14 萬?

總結(jié)與結(jié)論

上周末比特幣的韌性經(jīng)歷嚴(yán)峻考驗,市場高效消化了 8 萬枚 BTC(價值 96 億美元)的拋售,這是其歷史上規(guī)模最大的獲利了結(jié)事件之一。盡管交易規(guī)模驚人,價格仍迅速企穩(wěn)于歷史高點附近,彰顯當(dāng)前市場流動性的深度與成熟度。

目前比特幣維持 10.5 萬 -12.5 萬美元區(qū)間震蕩。有效突破該區(qū)間可能改變市場格局,使 14.1 萬美元成為下一個焦點,鏈上指標(biāo)顯示該區(qū)域可能出現(xiàn)劇烈獲利了結(jié)。反之,當(dāng)前價格下方 11-11.5 萬美元的低量區(qū)值得密切關(guān)注,若出現(xiàn)回調(diào),該區(qū)域?qū)⒊蔀殛P(guān)鍵觀察位。

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