To avoid taking over high-level currency speculation, it is necessary to establish a three-in-one defense system of market awareness, risk identification and defense strategy: 1. Identify signals such as social media surge at the end of the bull market, plunge after the surge in the new currency, and giant whale reduction in holdings. The position pyramid rules and dynamic stop loss are adopted in the early stage of the bear market; 2. Build triple filters for information grading (strategy/tactics/noise), technical verification (moving moving averages and RSI, deep data), emotional isolation (three consecutive losses and stops, and pulling the network cable); 3. Create three-layer defense of rules (big whale tracking, policy-sensitive positions), tool layer (on-chain data monitoring, hedging tools), and system layer (barbell strategy, USDT reserves); 4. Beware of celebrity effects (such as LIBRA coins), policy changes, liquidity crisis and other scenarios, and respond through contract verification, position adjustment and order ratio monitoring; 5. Achieve cognitive upgrades from speculation to value investment, reconstruct value anchors and manage emotions, and ultimately realize rational investment through systematic execution.

In the cryptocurrency market, the phenomenon of takeover is essentially a comprehensive result of information asymmetry, emotional out of control and lack of strategy. This article builds the three dimensions of ** market law cognition**, ** risk identification framework**, and ** defense strategy. Combined with the latest market cases in 2025, it analyzes how to systematically avoid the risk of high-level takeovers and achieve cognitive upgrades from passive game to active defense.

1. Market cycle cognition: Identify the key signals of bull and bear conversion

The cyclical fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market have identifiable regular characteristics:

1. Typical characteristics of the end of the bull market
   • The number of social media discussions surged by more than 200% in a single day. For example, when Bitcoin exceeded US$117,000 in July 2025, the number of views on topics on a certain platform reached a historical peak.
   • The new currency rose by more than 500% on the first day of listing, but insufficient liquidity led to a subsequent plunge. In 2025, the popularity of "Labubu Coin" is launched on the trendy toy IP, and it soared by 500% within 24 hours and then shrank by 91%.
   • Institutional investors began to reduce their holdings in batches. Before the plunge in July 2025, Jujing Address had reduced its holdings of 350,000 Bitcoins, but retail investors increased their positions against the trend due to FOMO sentiment.
2. Defensive strategies in the early stages of bear markets
   • The "Position Pyramid Rule" is adopted: the risk of a single transaction shall not exceed 2% of the principal, and the overall position shall not exceed 30% of the total assets.
   • Set a dynamic stop loss line, for example, set the stop loss position to 1.5 times the volatility of the last 30 days. Data for 2025 show that traders using conditional orders have a stop loss execution rate of 47% higher than manual operations.

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2. Risk identification framework: triple filter that penetrates the market fog

Build a risk filtering system for information grading, technical verification, and emotional isolation:

1. Information hierarchical management
   • Strategic information (such as regulatory frameworks) needs to be laid out 6-12 months in advance. For example, before the US Genius Act was passed, institutions had already passed the US bond mortgage stablecoin layout.
   • Tactical-level information (such as project progress) needs to be verified in combination with on-chain data. When a DeFi token was hyped by the "AI concept" in 2025, the on-chain data showed that the exchange Qianbao balance surged by 300%, which was actually a signal of the team's shipment.
   • Noise level information (such as KOL platforms) requires a "emotional thermometer": when the social media discussion volume increases by more than 200% in a single day, it will automatically reduce its position by 30%.
2. Technical analysis and verification
   • Combine the moving average (such as the 200-day moving average) and the RSI indicator to identify trends. Traders who adopt this strategy outperformed the market by 27% in 2025.
   • Use in-depth exchange data to predict liquidity risks. Before the "President's Coin" LIBRA plummeted in 2025, the number of orders placed on a certain exchange was less than 5% of its market value, indicating that liquidity was exhausted.
3. Emotional isolation mechanism
   • Adopt the "three consecutive losses and stops" method: after three consecutive emotional trading losses, force the stop for 7 days to reset your cognition.
   • Learn from the "network cable pull strategy": When market fluctuations cause anxiety, force exit from the trading interface for 24 hours to avoid impulsive decisions.

3. Construction of defense strategy: From passive takeover to active defense

Establish a three-layer defense system that is regular, tool-based and systematic:

1. Rule layer: Quantitative risk threshold
   • Set "Giant Whale Tracking Indicators": When the address of a single transfer of more than 10,000 Bitcoins changes, a risk warning will be triggered. Before the plunge in July 2025, such addresses had been reduced in batches.
   • Adopt "policy-sensitive position management": reduce the positions of high-risk assets below 10% during the regulatory policy window period (such as before the US stablecoin bill is passed).
2. Tool layer: Technology filters noise
   • Monitor fund flow using on-chain data analysis platforms such as Nansen. Before the LUNA collapse in 2025, the platform showed that the Giant Whale address had transferred assets in advance.
   • Configure cross-market arbitrage tools, such as locking profits through futures hedging. After the Fed's policy changes in 2024, the high-frequency trading team achieved three times the profits of retail investors through hedging.
3. System layer: Building an anti-fragile ecology
   • Implement the "asset barbell strategy": 70% allocate mainstream coins (such as Bitcoin and Ethereum), and 30% allocate high-potential altcoins to avoid excessive concentration of a single asset.
   • Retain 5%-10% of USDT as "crisis reserve" and is used to replenish positions or buy at the bottom when it plummets. During the Bitcoin plunge in March 2025, this strategy can control the maximum retracement to less than 15%.

4. Typical risk scenarios: historical mirror and response plans

Market history repeatedly verifies **Typical model of risk outbreak**:

1. Celebrity Effect Trap
   • Case: In 2025, LIBRA tokens on the platform of Argentine President Mile soared by 500% in half an hour after its launch, and then plummeted by 85% due to the team's cashout, and retail investors lost more than US$250 million.
   • Countermeasure: Verify the permissions of token contracts through a blockchain browser to identify whether there are tokens reserved by the team (such as the LIBRA team holding 40% of the tokens is not unlocked).
2. Policy Mutation Risk
   • Case: After the US "Genius Act" was passed, Bitcoin rose by 2% in the short term, but institutions have completed the distribution of chips in advance, and retail investors were trapped after chasing the highs.
   • Response: Establish "policy-sensitive position management" to reduce the positions of high-risk assets to below 10% during the regulatory policy window.
3. Liquidity Crisis
   • Case: In 2025, a DeFi project took advantage of the "AI concept" to hype it, attracting 100,000 new users to enter the market in 24 hours, but it plummeted by 80% due to liquidity depletion.
   • Countermeasures: Monitor the ratio of orders on the exchange to market value, and trigger an early warning when the ratio is less than 5% (such as the ratio is less than 3% before LIBRA plummeted).

5. Cognitive upgrade: From speculative game to value investment

Implement the paradigm conversion of ** investment logic**:

1. Value anchor reconstruction
   • From "price speculation" to "fundamental analysis", we focus on core indicators such as project technology implementation (such as blockchain expansion plans) and ecological construction (such as DeFi user growth).
   • Drawing on traditional financial valuation models, such as using the "Metcalf's Law" to evaluate the value of public chains, and avoid blindly pursuing hot concepts.
2. Emotional Management Revolution
   • Establish a "dopamine blocking mechanism": the dopamine secretion intensity stimulated by trading behavior exceeds that of gambling, and physiological dependence needs to be reduced through meditation, exercise, etc.
   • The "decision log method" is adopted: the decision basis, emotional state and results are recorded after each transaction, and the cognitive bias is reviewed regularly.

In the game field where information overload and manipulation coexist, the core of avoiding taking over is to penetrate the emotional fog, build a defense system, and achieve cognitive upgrades. From the black swan event of FTX bankruptcy to the "Presidential Coin" LIBRA's "leapfrog" has repeatedly proved that those who can control market laws can take advantage of the situation to create excess returns; those who are trapped by short-term fluctuations will eventually become victims of high-level takeovers . Investors need to incorporate risk defense into the trading system, and ultimately achieve the transformation from "emotional slave" to "rational gamer" through regular execution, instrumental filtering, and systematic hedging.

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