Table of contents

• Bitcoin market share fell by 5.84% in a single week, the biggest drop in three years
• The altcoin seasonal index rose to 54, hitting a new high this year
• The weather vane of the altcoin market——ETH trend is strong
• Mainstream altcoins are making efforts, and the peak altcoins season has quietly begun?
• Macro variables are still key, and the direction of the FCC policy has attracted attention

Bitcoin (BTC) dominance has weakened significantly, the altcoin season index has steadily climbed, and market funds are gradually flowing to mainstream alternative tokens such as Ethereum (ETH). ETH has performed well recently, with a strong price breaking through the $3,800 mark, becoming the focus of market attention. Does this round of market herald the arrival of the "peak season of altcoin"? This article will conduct in-depth analysis of current market trends.

? Bitcoin market share fell by 5.84% in a single week, the biggest drop in three years

According to the latest data from TradingView, as of July 22, Bitcoin's market share continued to decline, falling to 60.69%, with a cumulative decline of 7.3% this month, the lowest level in the past five months; the single-week decline reached 5.84 percentage points, the worst weekly decline since June 2022.

It should be emphasized that the decline in BTC's dominance this time is not due to its own sharp pullback, but because Ethereum and a number of mainstream altcoins performed strongly, with the increase far exceeding Bitcoin, thus "squeezing" BTC's share of the total market value. Not long ago, the indicator once approached 66%. The rapid decline now reflects a structural change in market capital allocation.

Related Reading: What is Bitcoin’s dominance? BTC's market share is approaching 65%, what impact will it have on the cryptocurrency market?

? The altcoin seasonal index rose to 54, hitting a new high this year

CoinMarketCap data shows that the current Altcoin Season Index has climbed to 54, reaching its peak this year. This means that 54% of the top 100 crypto assets with market caps have exceeded Bitcoin in the past 90 days. Although there is still a gap from the recognized "counterfeit season" launch standard (75% outperforms BTC), the current trend has clearly shown that the overall momentum of altcoins is increasing.

Although only about half of the altcoins outperform Bitcoin at present and there is still room for a full explosion, market potential is accumulating. According to CMC statistics, the index was only 30 in May this year, and it hit its annual high of 87 in December 2024. If funds continue to pour into ETH and related popular projects, a new round of Altseason may be expected to start. The top ten altcoins with the current 90-day increase include: PENGU, SPX, CFX, VIRTUAL, WIF, etc.

Related Reading: What is an altcoin? What are there? 2025 latest altcoin ranking and potential coin recommendations

The weather vane of the altcoin market——ETH trend is strong

Recently, the market focus has clearly shifted to ETH, which has always been regarded as the "barometer" of the altcoin market. Market data shows that the ETH quote on July 22 was US$3,735, with a 24-hour turnover of more than US$46 billion, an increase of more than 20% in the past seven days, and once surged to more than US$3,850 during the session, setting a new high since February 2024.

On-chain information reveals that World Liberty Financial (WLF), a Trump family-affiliated investment institution, has purchased a total of 66,275 ETH from November 29, 2024 to March 5, 2025, with an average holding cost of about US$3,243. Recently, WLF made another move on July 18, spending US$3 million to increase its holdings of 861 ETH. As of now, its total ETH holdings have reached 70,143, with a market value of approximately US$251 million based on the current price.

The main factors driving ETH rise include:

• Spot ETFs continue to attract money, and institutions continue to increase their investment: BlackRock, SharpLink Gaming, WLF and other institutions continue to flow into Ethereum spot ETFs. Since the product was launched, net inflows have been achieved for 11 consecutive trading days. Among them, the daily inflow on July 16 was as high as US$727 million, and the next day it recorded US$602 million, providing solid support for ETH prices.
• On-chain activity rebounds, DeFi rebounds : Data shows that the average daily transaction volume of Ethereum network has increased from about 1.1 million in April to 1.4 million at present. At the same time, buying in Asia is active, capital fee rates rise, and the use rate of DeFi protocols rebounds, jointly boosting ETH.

Related reading: 2025 Ethereum Eco Series Token Summary: Which Ethereum chain currencies will benefit from the rise of Ethereum?

Mainstream altcoins are making efforts, and the peak altcoins season has quietly begun?

In addition to ETH, mainstream altcoins such as XRP, SOL, and LINK have also strengthened one after another, and the market's attention to whether the "copy season" is coming is increasing. Data shows that XRP rose more than 24% this week, with a market value exceeding US$210 billion, ranking third in the world, second only to BTC and ETH.

Typically, the collective rise of altcoins is often led by ETH. If this round of rise continues, it may drive a wider capital flow into the mainstream and small and medium-sized token markets. However, BTCC analysts pointed out that the current overall monthly trading volume of altcoins is still lower than the annual average, and the market may be in the consolidation stage, and comprehensive rotation still needs to be observed and confirmed.

"Although ETH and some mainstream altcoins have shown strength, this round of rise is mainly driven by institutions, and whether it can spread to the entire market remains to be verified," said Presto Research analyst Min Jung.

In addition, this round of market lacks strong emerging narrative support, and some projects are facing pressure to unlock tokens, so the overall rotation rhythm is still relatively cautious.

Related Reading: What does token unlock mean? Why do you need attention? Latest token unlocking schedule in July 2025

Macro variables are still key, and the direction of the FCC policy has attracted attention

The subsequent trend of the crypto market, especially whether Bitcoin can maintain the current range, is still highly dependent on US macroeconomic data and monetary policy trends. Next, we need to focus on key indicators such as the number of initial unemployment benefits, manufacturing and service industry PMI, which will affect the judgment of the Federation's interest rate resolution on July 30.

According to CME FedWatch tools, the market generally expects that the meeting will keep interest rates unchanged between 4.25% and 4.50%, and the high interest rate environment may last longer. However, once a clear signal of interest rate cuts is released in the future, it may inject a new round of upward momentum into the crypto market.

Overall, the market is currently in the stage of rebalancing the capital structure. Although the "copy season" has not been fully established, relevant positive signals are gradually gathering, and the game between price and market sentiment has entered a critical period. Analysts and forecasts have been made that the "altcoin peak season" may officially arrive in August or September. Until then, the market may still face greater volatility risks.

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