Bitcoin halving is not the end of the price myth, but the starting point of its transformation from speculative assets to value store; 1. Halfing stimulates the market through artificial scarcity, but institutional entry and ETF approval in 2024 have caused a qualitative change in the market structure; 2. The global economic de-dollarization trend strengthens the Bitcoin hedging attributes, but the market shows a contradiction between the rising speculative enthusiasm and the decline in retail participation; 3. Long-term value depends on actual applications. Technical innovations such as Lightning Network and Ordinals protocols can support its future more than simply halving; 4. When the 21 millionth Bitcoin is mined, Bitcoin must prove that it is not only scarce, but also useful; halving marks the entry of digital currency into a new stage of value reconstruction with utility as the core.

Half time has arrived: The disenchantment and reconstruction of the Bitcoin price myth

The Bitcoin halving mechanism is like the "Hunger Game" in the digital currency world, creating scarcity every four years and stimulating the market nerves. The carefully designed deflationary game climaxed again when the miner reward dropped from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125. Historical data shows that after the first three halvings, Bitcoin prices rose by 93 times, 30 times and 8 times respectively. This "myth" of diminishing numbers is facing complex deconstruction of the real world.

The halving mechanism is essentially a process of commoditizing Bitcoin. By simulating the scarcity of precious metals such as gold, Satoshi Nakamoto injected the narrative gene of "digital gold" into digital currency. The halving in 2024 occurs in a new market environment: the US Bitcoin spot ETF is approved to bring US$27 billion in new funds, and institutional investors hold 17% of Bitcoin circulation. These changes have transformed the halving effect from a simple supply shock to a complex financial game. When traditional financial institutions participate deeply, the Bitcoin price formation mechanism is no longer dominated by miners and retail investors.

The current global economy is experiencing a wave of "de-dollarization", and Bitcoin's role as a hedging tool is strengthened. El Salvador listed Bitcoin as a fiat currency and continued MicroStrategy increase in holdings, which shows that Bitcoin is establishing a valuation logic independent of the traditional financial system. However, the market showed a contradictory situation in 2024: on the one hand, the open contracts in the derivatives market hit a record high, showing speculative enthusiasm; on the other hand, Coinbase data showed that the proportion of retail trading dropped to 31%, implying a qualitative change in the market structure. When halving encounters institutionalization, price volatility may decrease but systemic risks increase.

The future of Bitcoin price myth depends on whether it can complete the transformation from speculative assets to store of value. Half is like a regular "digital stimulant", which will still stimulate the market in the short term, but long-term value needs practical application support. Lightning Network's transaction volume has increased by 300% year-on-year, and the NFT ecosystem spawned by the Ordinals protocol, these technological innovations can support the price base more than simply halving the quantity. When the 21 millionth bitcoin was mined, the real test was just beginning - Bitcoin without block rewards must prove that it is not only scarce, but also useful.

Bitcoin’s price story is shifting from simple supply narratives to complex value reconstructions. The halving moment is not the end of the myth, but the beginning of the coming-of-age ceremony of digital currency. In this new stage, the market will use more stringent standards to measure the value of Bitcoin – not only how much it has, but also what it can do.

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