Dissatisfied positions are the core rule of survival of the crypto market because they can retain the ability to counterattack and market participation rights. 1. Those who have full positions have a volatility resistance approaching zero, which is prone to overturn the position or cut their losses in the black swan; 2. Miss the opportunity to replenish the position of the gold pit and cannot dilute the cost; 3. When high leverage is added, slight fluctuations will trigger the position to break through. Old players use 50% mainstream coins, 30% stablecoins, and the upper limit of single coins is controlled at 20% and 5% respectively, and the average price is reduced through pyramid increase (30% first position, callback plus 20%). Leverage should be used with caution. Most of the liquidation is due to the leverage exceeding 20 times and the position exceeding 90%. Veterans usually limit within 3 times and only use floating profits to increase their positions. Dynamic management includes: a single stop loss does not exceed 2% of the principal, quarterly rebalancing (stop profit up 50%, decrease positions by 10%), and fixed investment in DCA to avoid emotional operations. Typical death cases show that a long position with a 100-fold leverage can be overturned by US$2 million in 0.3 seconds; the liquidity of small coins is exhausted, so it cannot stop loss; there is no capital to replenish positions and miss the rebound. The ultimate risk control framework emphasizes: retaining more than 30% of stablecoins to ensure survival, leverage is like walking on thin ice, preset stop loss orders avoid emotional interference, more than 87% of those who survive for a long time make a profit, while those who bet on average survive for less than one year. Real opportunities require backup ammunition, and living longer is more important than earning faster.

In an environment of violent fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, "never fill up the position " is the core survival rule that old players exchange for real money and silver. The essence of this principle is to resist extreme risks and retain counterattack firepower - when a black swan event or liquidity crisis occurs in the market, those who have full positions are often forced to cut their losses because they cannot withstand fluctuations, while those who have reasonable positions can take the opportunity to reduce costs and even capture reversal opportunities. This article will systematically analyze the fatal risks of full-position operation and reveal the underlying logic of position management.

1. The fatal trap of full warehouse: from single point failure to global collapse

1. The resistance to volatility is approaching zero : the normal volatility of the cryptocurrency market exceeds 5%, and it is not uncommon for a single-day rise and fall of 20%. When the position is full, a violent callback may trigger a psychological collapse or be forced to close the position. For example, in March 2024, Bitcoin plummeted by 18% in a single day, resulting in the full account being zeroed for more than 500,000.

2. Missing opportunity cost : When high-quality assets have gold pit opportunities (such as ETH crashing to US$3,600 in a single day), those who have full positions can only watch because there is no available funds, while those who have divided positions can replenish positions at a low level and quickly dilute the costs.

3. Leverage crossing chain reaction : Full position plus high leverage is the strongest catalyst for liquidation. The price fluctuates in reverse by 2% under 50 times leverage and is forced to flatten, while in extreme markets, the price insertion may occur (instantly breaking through the stop loss position and rebounding), resulting in the position being killed by mistake.

Binance:

Ouyi OKEx:

Huobi

2. The position rules of old players: Use diversification to fight uncertainty

1. Core-Satellite Asset Allocation : Mainstream players adopt the classic proportion of 50% mainstream coins, 30% stablecoins, 20% potential small coins . The stablecoin part is both a risk buffer and a reserve team to capture opportunities.

2. Control of single currency position upper limit : Even if you are optimistic about a certain target, veterans will strictly limit single currency positions:
? Mainstream coins (BTC/ETH) shall not exceed 20% of the total position
? High-risk small currencies shall not exceed 5%
Avoid systemic crashes caused by a single project storm.

3. Pyramid-like increase : position building is implemented in three stages - 30% of the planned funds are invested in the first position, 5% is added to 20% , and the remaining part is added to the confirmation of the trend. Ensure that the cost is always below the average market price.

3. The combination of leverage and full position death: the mathematical inevitability of liquidation

Leverage is essentially an amplifier of returns and risks . When a full position encounters high leverage, it is only a matter of time before the position is liquidated:
? 10 times leverage: Price fluctuates by 10% in reverse and then loses its position
? 20 times leverage: 5% fluctuation will explode
? 100 times leverage: 1% fluctuation will explode

Data shows that 80% of liquidated positions are caused by leverage exceeding 20 times the position exceeding 90% of the principal. Old players usually limit leverage to 3 times , and only use the floating profit part to increase their positions (the principal is always safe).

4. Dynamic position management: the art of surviving

1. Stop loss law : Set the stop loss line of a single transaction to 2% of the total funds, and execute unconditionally at the point. After making a profit, move the stop loss line up and lock the profit.

2. Regular rebalancing : adjust the position structure every quarter:
? Partial take-profit of assets with an increase of more than 50%
? Reduce positions for targets that fall below 10% of the cost line
Maintain initial exposure.

3. DCA strategy to resolve timing anxiety : use regular fixed quota purchases (such as buying BTC for a fixed amount per week) to avoid emotional full positions due to forecasting the market. Historical backtests show that the 5-year DCA strategy yield exceeds 200%.

5. Blood and tears case: Three typical ways to die for those who are in the warehouse

Case 1: The instant kill of long positions with full leverage - During the Fed's interest rate hike in March 2024, a user had a 100-fold leverage long BTC, and the price drop of 5% caused the position of US$2 million to be in 0.3 seconds , and the actual price rebounded after 1 minute.

Case 2: Altcoin liquidity trap - Investors have a heavy holding of a small-cap token, making a profit of more than 300% but not stop profit. After encountering negative news, the coin fell 70% 24 hours a day, and the buying depth returned to zero . If you can't stop loss, you can only see that it will return to zero.

Case 3: The cycle of despair after trapping - the full position of ETH was trapped at $3,800. When the price fell to $3,600, there was no capital to replenish the position. After being forced to cut the loss, the price rebounded to $4,000. The sharer can buy diluted costs at a low level.

6. The ultimate risk control framework for old players

1. Principal security priority : Always retain more than 30% of stablecoins reserves to ensure that they are not liquidated in extreme market conditions.

2. Leverage is a tool rather than a core : when using leverage, it is like walking on thin ice , and the profit part will give priority to reducing the leverage multiple.

3. Separation of emotions and rules : Use preset stop loss orders and position calculators to replace manual decision-making to avoid the mentality of "taking it over again".

4. Survival outweighs returns : In the crypto market, more than 87% of investors who survived three rounds of bull and bear cycles achieved positive returns, while those with full positions had an average survival period of less than 1 year.

Core conclusion: Position is the first line of defense for risk control

The essence of dissatisfaction with the position is to retain market participation : when others are forced to leave due to liquidation or trapping, you still have the opportunity to capture chips. Keep three iron laws in mind:
? Full warehouse is equivalent to actively giving up error correction ability
? The leverage must match the remaining positions in depth
? Real opportunities always require backup ammunition
As the legendary trader said: "In this market, living for a long time is ten times more important than earning ."

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