The role of the message side in the cryptocurrency market is over-amplified, and its essence is a lagging auxiliary tool rather than an independent decision-making basis. 1. Market characteristics determine that retail investors are at a disadvantage: there is a time difference in information transmission, and institutions make arrangements in advance through compliance channels. For example, before the Genius Act was passed, Circle and Coinbase stock prices have already reacted; liquidity stratification has made the speed of institutional trading far exceed retail investors; project parties often manipulate narratives to create hot spots, resulting in retail investors being trapped by chasing highs. 2. Information asymmetry intensifies differentiation: institutions have priority information channels and professional data analysis capabilities, and can predict trends through on-chain data.

In the cryptocurrency market, the news side is often regarded as a catalyst for price fluctuations, but its actual effect is often over-amplified. This article analyzes the limitations of the message surface from three dimensions: **information transmission mechanism**, **market structural characteristics**, and **history verification**, and reveals its essential attributes as auxiliary tools.

1. Market characteristics: lag in news and institutional advantages

The information asymmetry and institutional dominance of the cryptocurrency market make it difficult for the information side to become the basis for independent decision-making:

1. Time difference in information transmission : Institutions obtain policy trends in advance through compliance channels. For example, before the 2025 Genius Act was passed, the stock prices of Circle and Coinbase had already responded in advance, and retail investors were trapped after the bill was announced.
2. Liquidity stratification effect : In-depth data from leading exchanges shows that institutional orders are often intensively traded 30 minutes before the news is announced. During the Bitcoin plunge in March 2025, the stop loss speed of the quantitative strategy was 300 milliseconds faster than manual operations.
3. Narrative manipulation of risks : Project parties create hot spots through social media. In 2025, the popularity of "Labubu Coin" borrowed trendy toy IP was launched, and it soared by 500% within 24 hours, but then 91% of investors were trapped because of chasing highs.

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2. Information asymmetry: institutional advantages and retail investors' disadvantages

The value of the message surface is significantly different in the information acquisition level and the interpretation ability:

1. Differences in compliance information channels : Before the US stablecoin regulation bill was passed, institutions made arrangements in advance through lobbying, while retail investors relied on public news. After the bill was announced, Bitcoin rose by 2% in the short term, but institutions have completed the distribution of chips.
2. Data analysis capability gap : Professional teams use on-chain data (such as exchange Qianbao balance and on-chain transfer) to predict trends. Before the plunge in July 2025, Jujing Address had reduced its holdings in Bitcoin in batches, but retail investors increased their positions due to FOMO sentiment.
3. Arbitrage mechanism crushes : institutions lock in profits through cross-market arbitrage. After the Federal Reserve withdraws cryptocurrency regulatory guidelines in 2024, Bitcoin rose 1.55%, but the high-frequency trading team hedged through futures and the actual returns reached three times that of retail investors.

3. Psychological Traps: Emotional Drive and Cognitive Difference

The spread of the news often resonates with the psychological effect of the **, aggravates market fluctuations:

1. Missing phobia (FOMO) : The story of getting rich on social media stimulates the trend of following the trend. In 2025, a DeFi token borrowed the "AI concept" and had a single-day amplitude of 30%, but frequent traders lost money due to chasing the rise and fall.
2. Overconfidence effect : retail investors overestimate their interpretation ability. Japanese retail investor Kojima doubled its profit through short-term trading at the beginning of the 2021 bull market, but the principal loss was 70% due to misjudgment of the halving cycle.
3. Dopamine dependence : Trading behavior stimulates the brain to secrete dopamine, which is more intense than bets. This physiological mechanism has caused some investors to fall into "trading addiction", and it is still difficult to stop even if they lose money.

4. Historical verification: Typical scenarios of message failure

Market history repeatedly proves the asymmetry between the news surface and the price trend**:

1. Policies are full of positive policies : In April 2025, the Federal Reserve withdraws cryptocurrency regulatory guidelines, and Bitcoin rose only 1.55%, and then fell back due to market expectations.
2. Emotion-driven reversal : After Trump announced the "crypto reserve plan", Bitcoin soared by 9% in a single day, but the next day, due to the difficulty of implementing the policy, it plummeted by 10%, and more than 300,000 people lost their positions.
3. Risk of centralized platform : Before FTX went bankrupt, the market was unaware of its liquidity crisis. After the news was announced, Bitcoin plummeted 26% within 24 hours, and retail investors suffered heavy losses.

5. Coping strategy: build a defense system for the message side

To rationally deal with the message surface, you need a combination of ** multi-dimensional strategy** and ** tools*:

1. Technical analysis filters noise : combine moving averages (such as the 200-day moving average) and RSI indicators to identify trends rather than short-term fluctuations. Traders who adopt this strategy outperformed the market by 27% in 2025.
2. Dynamic balance of positions : The risk of a single transaction shall not exceed 2% of the principal, and the overall position shall not exceed 30% of the total assets. This rule can control the maximum drawdown in extreme market conditions to within 15%.
3. Information hierarchical management : divide the information into "strategic level" (such as regulatory framework), "tactical level" (such as project progress), and "noise level" (such as social media rumors), and formulate response plans separately.
4. Emotional isolation mechanism : Learn from the "network pulling strategy" - When market fluctuations cause anxiety, force exit from the trading interface for 24 hours to avoid impulsive decision-making.

In the game field where information overload and manipulation coexist, the value of the message is like a "rearview mirror", which is more about the explanation of events that have occurred rather than future predictions. From the black swan incident of FTX bankruptcy to the roller coaster market triggered by Trump's remarks, history has repeatedly proved that what really determines the success or failure of investment is a deep understanding of the market structure, transcending human weaknesses, and strict implementation of the trading system . Investors need to incorporate the message surface into a multi-dimensional analysis framework, and ultimately achieve a cognitive upgrade from "message dependence" to "strategy-driven" through technical filtering, position control, and emotional management.

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