Waiting for short positions is to avoid invalid fluctuations, retain ammunition to deal with black swans, and break the emotional trading cycle; clear signals include: 1. Breakthrough in key prices at volume (trading volume increases by more than 50%); 2. Resonance of multi-cycle indicators (such as the daily golden cross weekly RSI departs from oversold); 3. Confirmation of classic patterns (such as cup handle, head and shoulder bottom, rising triangle); 4. Support of on-chain data (the giant whale increases its holdings to 0.5%, capital fee rate turns negative, open position decreases by 40%, MVRV 2.5 or

In cryptocurrency trading, waiting for short positions is the core strategy that distinguishes professional investors from retail investors. This seemingly "inaction" state is actually an active choice to capture high-deterministic opportunities - when market noise drowns out rational judgments, short positions who retain 100% liquidity have the greatest initiative. This article will reveal the tactical value of short positions and analyze six categories of quantifiable clear entry signals.

1. Three strategic values of waiting for short positions

1. Avoid the wealth loss of disorderly fluctuations : The crypto market is in a state of fluctuation for 70% of the time, and frequent traders lose 24% of the principal annually to friction costs. A short position can completely avoid this "death Thousand Swords" effect.

2. Keep the ammunition to capture the opportunity of black swans : When a sudden panic leads to a flash crash (such as ETH drops 18% to $3,600 per day), short positions can use 100% of the funds to buy at the bottom, while holders often miss out on the gold pit due to trapping.

3. Cracking the emotional trading cycle : Data shows that after three consecutive losses, the trader's accuracy rate plummeted to below 31% . Short positions can reset your mental state and avoid retaliatory trading.

Mainstream Bitcoin Exchanges in 2025:

Ouyi official website:

Ouyi official app:

Binance official website:

Binance official app:

gate.io official website:

gate.io official app:

2. Three core elements of clear signal in technical aspects

1. Breakthrough in key price levels : Prices break through important resistance/supports must be accompanied by a surge in trading volume by more than 50% . For example, when BTC breaks through $68,000, if the trading volume reaches 1.8 times the 30-day average, the effectiveness of the breakthrough will increase greatly.

2. Multi-period indicator resonance :
? Daily MACD Golden Cross Weekly RSI leaves the oversold zone
? After closing the 4-hour Bollinger Band, the volume breaks through the upper track
In July 2025, SOL breaks through US$204 and then shows triple cycle resonance

3. Confirmation of classic forms :
? Cup handle pattern : XRP rose 92% after forming cup handle at $3.40
? Head and shoulder bottom : The trading volume of the right shoulder must be greater than the left shoulder
? Ascending triangle: break through after testing the trend line at least 3 times

3. Deterministic signals of on-chain data

1. Accumulation behavior of giant whale : When holding 100-1000 BTC addresses, the weekly increase in holdings reaches 0.5% of the circulation volume , and the net outflow on the exchange lasts for 3 days, it often indicates that the bottom is formed.

2. Derivatives Market Reset :
? Perpetual contract fund rate turns from positive to negative
? Open contract volume plummeted by more than 40%
It shows that the leverage bubble has been cleared and the market has returned to health.

3. The MVRV indicator bottoms out : When the market value/realization value (MVRV) is less than 0.85, it indicates that most holders are in a floating loss state. Historically, the average increase in the indicator within 90 days after the trigger was exceeded 60% .

4. Signals of extreme market sentiment

1. Fear and Greed Index : This indicator enters the market when it is ≤15 (extremely fear), and the median return of 3 months reaches 47% ; ≥85 (extremely greedy) wait-and-see in the space-time position.

2. Social media silence effect : When the discussion popularity of a mainstream currency drops by more than 50% weekly but the price is sideways, it is often a signal of chip precipitation. ADA rose 58% after this phenomenon occurred at $0.82.

3. Extreme value of long-short ratio : When the contract long-short ratio is >2.5 or 82% .

5. Practical framework for matching positions and signals

1. Signal hierarchical verification system :
? A-level signal: Triple-fold verification of emotion on the technology chain (30% of the principal can be invested)
? Level B signal: on-chain verification (investment ≤15%)
? C-level signal: single index signal (input ≤5%)

2. Pyramid-style entry rhythm :
? First position: 40% of the planned funds are invested when the signal is confirmed
? Retracement: Price pulls back to breakout point plus 30%
? Trend confirmation: Break through the previous high to make up for the remaining positions

3. Stop loss and signal failure rules :
? The price fails to stand firm within 3 days to break through.
? The maximum loss is controlled at 2% of a single principal

6. Active monitoring list for short positions

1. Key price warning : Set BTC/ETH±7% price alert to avoid missing breakthroughs

2. On-chain abnormal movement monitoring : tracking the daily net changes of the first 50 giant whales address > $1 million abnormal behavior

3. Volatility compression warning : When Bollinger bandwidth narrows to the lowest 10% range in history , it indicates that the change is imminent

Core conclusion: Short position is the most advanced offensive posture

True trading wisdom lies in understanding:
? 80% of profit comes from 20% of high-quality signals
? Short position is not to give up opportunities, but to reject inefficient losses
? It is clear that the signal needs to meet the price, trading volume and time 3D verification
When others wear down their principal in a volatile market, short sellers are reserved for energy to wait for the golden sniper moment that year only 3-5 times - this is the essence of continuous profit.

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