Cryptocurrency hotspot speculation is a zero-sum game of information asymmetry and emotional game, and needs to be balanced through risk identification, strategy construction and cognitive upgrade: 1. Hotspots have the dual attributes of value discovery and high-risk traps. If policy favorable policies can push Bitcoin up by 18%, while Manus tokens that lack support plummets by 95%; 2. When screening hotspots, you need to consider three types of scenarios: policy-driven, technological breakthroughs and emotions-driven, and judge based on compliance, technological innovation and liquidity depth; 3. Build a three-dimensional trading strategy, including position pyramid law to control risk exposure, ATR indicators and condition orders to achieve dynamic stop loss, asset barbell strategy and USDT reserves for risk isolation; 4. To deal with liquidity crises, capital market traps and policy sudden changes, you need to monitor the market value ratio of the order volume, verify project qualifications, and implement policy window positions reductions; 5. Realize cognitive upgrades, move from price speculation to fundamental analysis, reconstruct the value anchor, and complete emotional management through the decision log method and dopamine blocking mechanism, and ultimately establish a systematic defense system in the game to avoid becoming a takeover.

Hot hype in the cryptocurrency market is essentially a zero-sum game of information asymmetry and emotional games. Following the trend may not only bring short-term excess returns, but may also become a "takeover warrior" because of blindly chasing the rise. This article combines the latest market cases in 2025 and analyzes how to achieve a dynamic balance between returns and risks in hot-spot games from three dimensions: risk identification, strategy construction, and tool application.

1. The dual attributes of hot topics: the dialectical relationship between honey and traps

The market history has repeatedly verified the **double-edged sword effect of hot topics**:

1. Value discovery opportunities
   • After the passage of the US Genius Act in 2025, compliance expectations pushed Bitcoin to rise 18% in a single week, and institutions' net inflow of funds through ETF channels exceeded US$5 billion.
   • US stock companies include Ethereum in their core balance sheets, pushing their price to exceed $3,600 and a market value of $437.9 billion.
2. High-risk trap
   • After the Manus token of the same name was launched with the AI hotspot, its price fluctuated by more than 900% within 24 hours, and eventually plummeted by 95% due to lack of technical support.
   • Xin Kangjia platform used "1% daily income" as bait and absorbed 13 billion yuan through stablecoin USDT, and finally the trader ran away with the money.

2. Applicable scenarios and screening principles for hot topic hype

Not all hot topics are worth participating in, and they need to be filtered from three dimensions: ** fundamentals, liquidity, and sustainability:

1. Policy-driven hot spots
   • Before the Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance came into effect, the locked positions of compliant stablecoin projects increased by 400%, and the market value of leading projects increased by 3 times.
   • Screening principle: The policy implementation timetable, regulatory rules and project compliance qualifications must be verified.
2. Technical breakthrough hot spots
   • The DeFi protocol YAM uses a liquidity diversion mechanism to lock the position exceeds US$800 million within 24 hours, but it eventually returns to zero due to code vulnerabilities.
   • Screening principle: It is necessary to evaluate technological innovation, code audit status and community consensus strength.
3. Emotion-driven hot spots
   • LABUBU coins’s popularity of borrowing trendy toys IP was launched, and it soared by 500% within 24 hours and then shrank by 91%. It is essentially speculative behavior of Meme coins.
   • Screening principle: Beware of the "one-click coin issuance" project, focusing on the depth of liquidity and token allocation mechanism.

3. Three-dimensional trading strategy for hot topics

Build a regular, tool-based and systematic defense system:

1. Position management rules
   • The "Position Pyramid Rule" is adopted: the risk of a single transaction shall not exceed 2% of the principal, and the overall position shall not exceed 30% of the total assets.
   • Dynamic adjustment strategy: When the social media discussion volume increases by more than 200% in a single day, automatically reduce the position by 30%.
2. Technical filtering tools
   • Set a dynamic stop loss in combination with the ATR indicator (average real amplitude), for example, set the stop loss position to 1.5 times the volatility of the last 30 days.
   • Using the exchange's "conditional order" function, the preset price triggers automatic closing of positions. Data for 2025 show that traders using conditional orders have a stop loss execution rate of 47% higher than manual operations.
3. Risk isolation mechanism
   • Implement the "asset barbell strategy": 70% configure mainstream coins (such as Bitcoin and Ethereum), and 30% configure high-potential altcoins.
   • Retain 5%-10% of USDT as "crisis reserve" and is used to replenish positions or buy at the bottom when it plummets.

4. Typical risk scenarios and response plans

Market history verification**Common patterns of risk outbreak**:

1. Liquidity Crisis
   • Case: A DeFi project took advantage of the "AI concept" to hype it, attracting 100,000 new users in 24 hours, but it plummeted by 80% due to liquidity depletion.
   • Response: Monitor the ratio of orders placed on the exchange to market value, and trigger an early warning when the ratio is less than 5%.
2. Fund Trap
   • Case: Xin Kangjia platform used "1% daily income" as bait and absorbed 13 billion yuan through stablecoin USDT, and finally the trader ran away with the money.
   • Response: Verify the qualifications of project-related enterprises and avoid participating in the "hit-hit" rebate model.
3. Policy Mutation Risk
   • Case: After the US "Genius Act" was passed, Bitcoin rose by 2% in the short term, but institutions have completed the distribution of chips in advance, and retail investors were trapped after chasing the highs.
   • Response: Establish "policy-sensitive position management" to reduce the positions of high-risk assets to below 10% during the regulatory policy window.

5. Cognitive upgrade: From emotional game to rational investment

Implement the paradigm conversion of ** investment logic**:

1. Value anchor reconstruction
   • From "price speculation" to "fundamental analysis", we focus on core indicators such as project technology implementation (such as blockchain expansion plans) and ecological construction (such as DeFi user growth).
   • Drawing on traditional financial valuation models, such as using the "Metcalf's Law" to evaluate the value of public chains, and avoid blindly pursuing hot concepts.
2. Emotional Management Revolution
   • Establish a "dopamine blocking mechanism": the dopamine secretion intensity stimulated by trading behavior exceeds that of gambling, and physiological dependence needs to be reduced through meditation, exercise, etc.
   • The "decision log method" is adopted: the decision basis, emotional state and results are recorded after each transaction, and the cognitive bias is reviewed regularly.

In the game field where information overload and manipulation coexist, the core of following the trend is to penetrate the emotional fog, build a defense system, and achieve cognitive upgrades. From the surge in LABUBU coins to the collapse of Xin Kangjia platform, history has repeatedly proved that those who can control market laws can take advantage of the situation to create excess returns; those who are trapped by short-term fluctuations will eventually become victims of high-level takeovers . Investors need to incorporate risk defense into the trading system, and ultimately achieve the transformation from "emotional slave" to "rational gamer" through regular execution, instrumental filtering, and systematic hedging.

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