

At the beginning of July, Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin, is the altcoin season really coming?
Jul 30, 2025 pm 06:39 PMYes, Ethereum's leading rise may indicate the start of the altcoin season, but it has not yet fully exploded. 1. The heating of ETF expectations, ecological recovery and pledge rate drive ETH up; 2. The decline of BTC dominance, the initial occurrence of sector rotation and the improvement of liquidity constitute potential signals; 3. Risks include Bitcoin siphon effect, regulatory uncertainty and insufficient capital capacity; 4. Conclusion It is believed that BTC dominance continues to decline, ETH/BTC stands above 0.055, and the total market value of altcoins exceeds US$1 trillion before the altcoin season can be confirmed. At present, we should be cautiously optimistic, pay attention to the ETH ecological leader and low-valuation sectors and prevent volatility risks.
Since July, Ethereum (ETH) has performed significantly better than Bitcoin (BTC), with ETH/BTC rising by more than 10% as of mid-July, triggering discussions about the "Altcoin Season". Does this phenomenon mean that the altcoin market will usher in a full-scale explosion? The following are the key analysis:
1. Drivers of Ethereum’s leading rise
ETF expectations heat up: The recent market optimism about the approval of Ethereum spot ETFs, especially the rumors that the US SEC may speed up the approval process, has driven ETH buying. In contrast, Bitcoin ETF capital inflows slowed down and funds rotated to Ethereum.
Ecological recovery: The activity of the Ethereum Layer2 network (such as Arbitrum, Optimism) and DeFi protocols (such as Uniswap, Aave) has rebounded, coupled with the continued growth of ETH staking rate (about 26% of the circulation supply is locked), which has enhanced market confidence.
Technical breakthrough: The ETH/BTC exchange rate broke through the key resistance level of 0.05, triggering the buy signal of the quantitative trading model, further boosting the rise.
2. Potential Signals of Altcoin Season
Historical Rules: According to past cycles, altcoin seasons usually occur when Bitcoin is sideways or calls back. Recently, BTC dominance (the proportion of Bitcoin market value) has dropped from 55% to 53%, and some funds may flow to small and medium-sized tokens.
The sector rotation has begun to appear: track tokens such as AI (such as FET), MEME (such as PEPE), RWA (such as ONDO) have seen significant recent increases, but there has not yet been a comprehensive general increase, and the market still has differentiation.
Liquidity support: Under the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the overall liquidity of the crypto market will improve and risk appetite will increase, which will be conducive to the performance of altcoins.
3. Risks and Challenges
Bitcoin Siphon Effect: If BTC suddenly falls due to macro fluctuations (such as US stock adjustments), it may drag down the entire crypto market, and altcoins usually fall even more.
Regulatory uncertainty: The US SEC's review of the attributes of token securities is still a sword, especially for small and medium-sized projects.
The limitations of capital: The current total market value of altcoins has not yet exceeded the key pressure level, so we need to observe whether it can continue to increase in volume.
4. Conclusion: Be cautious and optimistic
The strength of Ethereum has opened up imagination space for the altcoin market, but three conditions still need to be met for the full explosion: BTC dominance continues to decline, ETH/BTC exchange rate has stabilized above 0.055, and the total market value of altcoin exceeds US$1 trillion. In the short term, investors can pay attention to ETH ecological leaders and low-valuation sectors, but they must be vigilant about market volatility risks. The real altcoin season may still need to wait for a clearer funding signal.
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