

Bitcoin halving has been implemented, and the clarion call for the next bull market has been sounded?
Jul 29, 2025 pm 02:24 PMBitcoin halving is not an inevitable signal of a bull market, but a collective illusion that takes advantage of human obsession with scarcity; 1. Although prices rose after the first three halvings, the market size was small and in a loose cycle, which was completely different from the current trillion-dollar market value and high interest rate environment; 2. The daily new Bitcoin value is about $54 million, which is minimal compared to the daily trading volume of $20 billion; 3. The real role of halving is to provide the market with an excuse for collective action and give birth to the fantasy of "this time is different"; 4. When everyone is convinced that history will repeat, it is often the most dangerous moment in the financial market; Bitcoin halving is essentially a magic mirror reflecting human weaknesses, revealing people's eternal desire for certainty and getting rich, as well as the repeated historical mistakes.
Bitcoin Half: A Well-designed Collective Illusion
The Bitcoin halving event came as scheduled again, and miners' rewards dropped from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125. This mechanism pre-programmed into the blockchain protocol has become the most ritualistic cyclical performance in the cryptocurrency world. Market analysts can't wait to announce that "the bull market horn has been sounded", and investors are ready to welcome a new round of wealth feast. But behind this collective excitement is a fact that has been deliberately ignored: the halving mechanism is essentially a sociological experiment, and its power lies not in the rigor of mathematical models, but in human beings' eternal obsession with scarcity narratives.
Historical data does show that Bitcoin prices have risen significantly after the first three halvings (2012, 2016, 2020). But this linear extrapolation ignores a fundamental change: the size of the Bitcoin market in the early days is small, and the entry of several institutional investors can trigger a price tsunami; now the market value of Bitcoin has exceeded one trillion US dollars, and the same script is difficult to simply copy. More importantly, the first three halvings occurred in the global quantitative easing cycle, and the world is currently at a turning point in the era of high interest rate environment and tightening regulation.
The most clever psychological manipulation of the halving narrative is that it deify the single variable of change in supply into a master key that determines price. In fact, the real impact of the reduction in new currency output on the market is minimal - there are currently about 900 new Bitcoins worth about $54 million, which is like pouring a glass of water into the ocean compared to the average daily trading volume of $20 billion. The real magic is that the halving provides market participants with an excuse for collective action, allowing the supposedly rational investors to fall into the fantasy illusion of "different this time".
When all analysts repeat "history will always happen again", we should be more wary of: the most dangerous moment in the financial market is precisely when everyone is convinced that they have foreseeed the future. Bitcoin halving is not the starting gun of a bull market, but a magic mirror reflecting the weakness of human nature - there is our desire for certainty, our fantasy of getting rich, and historical lessons that we will never learn.
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