The piece performed quite well. Only four of my 26 Forbes articles have drawn more traffic.

Still, I’m skeptical it made much of a dent. I don’t expect the frenzy around agentic AI to cool quickly. Right now, the Gartner Hype Cycle places “AI agents” squarely at the “Peak of Inflated Expectations.”

And oddly enough, the tech world treats that peak like a trophy—despite the fact that what follows is almost always a harsh plunge into the “Trough of Disillusionment.” The cycle is treated as a necessary rite of passage. There's a widespread assumption that hype, even when exaggerated or deceptive, is essential for driving innovation forward.

The Gartner Hype Cycle Actually Encourages Hype

The Gartner Hype Cycle is known for mapping out the typical lifecycle of emerging technologies—from early buzz to widespread adoption. It starts with rising interest, then escalates rapidly into over-enthusiasm, culminating in the “Peak of Inflated Expectations.”

We’re currently perched right at that peak with agentic AI, teetering on the edge of a steep drop. And this fall could be especially brutal. The gap between what’s being promised and what’s actually achievable keeps widening, as flashy narratives dominate over real-world applications and measurable impact.

Overhyping has consequences. When decision-makers realize they’ve been sold on fantasy, the backlash will be severe. If we keep accelerating in this direction, the crash will be sharper than usual, and the resulting disillusionment deeper. It might even trigger a third AI Winter—a prolonged period of reduced investment and waning interest.

But here’s the problem: when Gartner labels a technology as being at peak hype, it doesn’t dampen the excitement—it amplifies it. Their model normalizes, even romanticizes, the cycle of overstatement and inflated claims. It sends the message that these wild swings aren’t just inevitable—they’re beneficial for pushing tech adoption.

I can’t agree. There’s something dangerous in shrugging and saying, “That’s just how tech works.” There’s complicity in accepting a certain level of exaggeration—what Gartner politely calls “Inflated Expectations”—as normal and harmless. Yes, the framework acknowledges that crashes happen, but it also rides the wave of excitement, effectively endorsing the frenzy. That’s not sober analysis; it’s a celebration of poor forecasting.

Sure, excitement fuels momentum. But do we really need to peddle fiction to inspire progress? As someone who believes deeply in both human potential and technological promise, I refuse to accept that.

AI Hype Reigns Supreme

Nowhere is this self-reinforcing hype cycle more dangerous than in AI. Because let’s face it—AI hype is in a league of its own. It pushes a narrative that, in the near future, machines will fully replace human workers across industries. It sells a false vision of total machine autonomy, driven by a seductive, fictional arc of ever-increasing “intelligence” that supposedly snowballs until it surpasses all human abilities.

Yet Gartner treats every trend the same—as if being trendy is an achievement. By including each new buzzword on its rollercoaster chart, the Hype Cycle acts like a universal endorsement stamp. It lacks the nuance to issue stronger warnings, even when they’re warranted. You never see steeper drops, flatter plateaus, or productivity levels barely above zero—even though some technologies deserve exactly that kind of grim assessment. But for “agentic AI,” that might be precisely what’s needed.

The hype around “agentic AI” is particularly egregious. The language itself—“agent,” “agentic”—ratchets up the drama. Attributing “agency” to machines doubles down on AI’s foundational myth: the humanization of code. It promotes an unrealistic, evidence-free belief that we’re on the brink of achieving extraordinary levels of autonomous computing.

“Agentic AI” Is Just GenAI Rebranded

Gartner has unintentionally amplified the hype by treating “agentic AI” as a distinct technological phase. While it’s being marketed as a breakthrough in its own right, the term doesn’t point to any new method or innovation. In reality, “agentic AI” is simply the latest chapter in the ongoing genAI hype wave that’s dominated since early 2023. Gartner seems to have missed this continuity. According to their latest report, genAI is already sliding toward the “Trough of Disillusionment,” while “agentic AI” sits freshly at the top of the hype curve.

I suspect the current wave of excitement—centered on large language models and generative AI—is far from over. Repackaging it with a new label like “agentic” breathes fresh life into the cycle. “Agentic AI” has become little more than a rebranding effort, inheriting the momentum of genAI. After all, nearly all so-called “agentic” systems today are just LLMs repurposed with loops and tools.

Given how it enables and excuses overpromising, perhaps the Hype Cycle itself will one day fall victim to its own logic. With any luck, it’ll finally descend into its long-overdue “Trough of Disillusionment”—and remain there.

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