Bitcoin’s long-term price trend between 2026 and 2030 will be mainly affected by four core factors. 1. Global macro liquidity, especially Fed interest rate policy, inflation data and economic growth expectations, a loose environment is usually beneficial to BTC; 2. The reduction in supply and market expectations brought about by the halving cycle in 2028 may drive price increases; 3. The clarification of the regulatory framework, especially the introduction of compliance paths and approval of financial products in major economies, is the basis of a long-term bull market; 4. The depth and breadth of institutional adoption, including corporate asset allocation, financial institution service expansion and payment application progress, marks the transition of BTC to mainstream assets; in addition, technological developments such as the maturity of Lightning networks and network security status will also support its value.

1. Macroeconomic environment and global liquidity

As a global digital asset, BTC's price has shown an increasingly strong correlation with the global macroeconomic environment, especially the liquidity of the US dollar. In the next few years, we need to focus on the following points:

• Global interest rate policy: especially the direction of the Federal Reserve. When major economies enter a cycle of interest rate cuts, market liquidity increases, investors' risk appetite increases, and funds are more willing to flow to high-risk asset classes, which usually constitutes a positive for BTC. On the contrary, continued austerity will curb its price performance.
• Inflation data: In a high inflation environment, BTC's "store of value" narrative will be tested by the market. If it can effectively hedge inflation, it will attract more funds seeking to preserve assets; otherwise, it may weaken its attractiveness.
• Economic growth expectations: Whether the global economy is heading for recovery or recession directly affects investor confidence. During the economic boom period, the overall market sentiment is optimistic, which is conducive to price increases; during the economic recession period, risk aversion sentiment heats up, and market performance is full of uncertainty.

2. Summary of BTC’s global mainstream trading platforms

• Binance Binance: ()
• Ouyi OKX: ()
• Huobi: ()
• Gate.io Sesame Opening: ( )

3. The impact of Halving Cycle

This is the most important built-in event in BTC's own economic model, which occurs approximately every four years, directly causing the number of newly generated BTC to be halved. The next halving is expected to happen in 2028.

• Supply shock: Half means the rate of new supply has dropped significantly. The reduction in supply will fundamentally drive price increases while demand remains stable or growing. Historical data shows that the 12 to 18 months after the halving event is usually a period of significant price climb.
• Market expectations: The halving cycle has become a consensus among market participants. Therefore, before and after the halving event in 2028, market expectations and hype sentiment themselves will become important variables that affect prices. 2026-2027 may be the stage of accumulating energy for the next cycle.

IV. Clarification of the global regulatory framework

Regulatory policies are one of the biggest uncertainties affecting the long-term development of BTC and are also the key to whether it can be accepted by the mainstream. In 2026-2030, regulatory clarity is crucial.

• Legislation of major economies: regulatory policies in the United States, the European Union, major Asian countries (such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore) and other places will play a role as a weather vane. The introduction of a clear and reasonable regulatory framework can provide institutional investors with a compliant participation path and is the basis of a long-term bull market.
• Approval of financial products: Observe the approval of more BTC-related financial products (such as spot ETFs) around the world. These compliant investment channels have greatly broadened the investor base and are an important indicator for measuring market maturity and acceptance.

5. Depth and breadth of institutional adoption

The participation of large institutions and enterprises is the core driving force for BTC's market value to move to a new level of magnitude. What needs to be observed in the future is not only "whether there are institutions to enter the market", but also "the depth and breadth of entry".

• Enterprise Asset Allocation: Are there more listed companies allocating BTC as part of their balance sheet.
• Services of financial institutions: Whether traditional financial giants begin to provide a wider range of BTC-related services, such as asset management, custody and trading services, marks their transition from "alternative" to "mainstream" assets.
• Applications in the payment field: Observe the actual application of BTC or its second-layer network (such as Lightning Network) in the payment field. Although there are many challenges in the short term, any breakthrough progress will greatly enhance its intrinsic value.

6. Technology development and network health status

The technological evolution and health status of BTC networks themselves are the fundamental support for their value.

• Scalability Solutions: Adoption and maturity of Layer 2 solutions such as Lightning Network. A network that can handle large-scale transactions and is cheap can support a wider range of application scenarios.
• The degree of network security and decentralization: whether the computing power distribution of the network is sufficiently dispersed and whether it can continue to resist potential attacks. The security of the network is the cornerstone of all its value propositions.

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