Netflix hasn’t made any official announcement yet. However, it’s still very early for them to do so unless the show is an enormous success. Even in that case, it can take some time before a renewal is confirmed. But we can look at the available evidence to get a sense of what’s likely to happen. Having done this for a while now, I’d say I’m right about 95% of the time. And all signs currently indicate that The Waterfront will almost definitely be renewed for a second season.

Something people aren’t focusing on enough is how well this show fits into Netflix’s lineup of crime-based series—particularly ones where bodies of water play a key role in the story.

The shows I’m referring to include Bloodline, the thriller that aired for three seasons starting in 2015. Then there’s the more high-profile Ozark, which ran for four seasons and concluded in 2022. Ozark was a major hit for Netflix, and it’s clear they’d want something to replace that void. Considering both of those earlier series had multiple seasons, it seems highly likely The Waterfront will follow suit. Still, there are other factors to consider when it comes to Netflix renewals.

Viewership – It doesn’t get better than launching at #1 and staying there for an extended period. Official numbers aren’t fully in yet, but everything suggests that The Waterfront is either meeting or surpassing expectations in this area.

Reception – The reception has been good, not spectacular. A 70% from both critics and fans is solid, and the show is certainly not bad. However, Netflix tends to care the least about critical reviews. For them, it’s usually more about viewership versus production costs.

Cost – This one looks promising. There’s no big-budget visual spectacle involved here. The cast includes lower-profile actors (though still talented), compared to both Bloodline and Ozark. Topher Grace might be the most recognizable name this season. Melissa Benoist could also be a draw for CW Arrowverse fans. Either way, this means lower payroll expenses.

Completion – The last factor is uncertain; we don’t know how many viewers finish the entire season, which would suggest interest in a second season. One clue is how long the show remains in a top viewing position, especially holding steady at #1. That’s a strong indicator that people are watching through multiple episodes over several days rather than losing interest after the first couple.

All signs point toward a yes. I can’t say exactly when it’ll be announced, but expect news of a The Waterfront season 2 renewal within the next few weeks or months.

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