Will Ethereum Price Pick a Side Based on Exchange Reserves Pattern?
Jun 06, 2025 am 10:30 AMEthereum price recently hovered in a sensitive area, especially with the price pushing above $2600. This was because it recently interacted with a descending resistance line that was part of its wedge pattern.
Recently, the price of Ethereum (ETH) has been hovering in a sensitive area, especially as it pushes above the $2,600. This is because it is now testing the resistance of the descending line that is part of the wedge pattern.
This resistance retest sets the stage for two potential price outcomes. From the chart, we can see that ETH could either achieve a bullish breakout or capitulate in favor of a retracement.
It is also worth noting that the price of ETH has been ranging between the $2,400 and $2,700 levels in the last 3 weeks as the bulls and bears faced off.
While this scenario underscores the bull’s inability to sustain a strong momentum, it also signals that ETH holders are not selling aggressively. A sign that they are still optimistic about ETH’s ability to extend recovery from the 2022 bear market.
In addition, ETH has been moving deeper into the wedge pattern’s tight squeeze zone, raising the expectations of a drastic directional move. But which direction will price likely lean?
Can Ethereum Price Pick a Side Based on Exchange Reserves Pattern?
Earlier this year, it was seen that ETH exchange reserve support and resistance patterns significantly influenced price movements. If that remains the case, then it may offer insights into ETH’s next possible move.
Now, if we look at the chart of ETH exchange reserves, we can see that they retested a 3-month support on Wednesday. It has since bounced back slightly in the last 24 hours, revealing that the rate of ETH flows onto exchanges was on the rise.
This pivot is in line with the balance between exchange inflows and outflows, with the former outpacing the latter in the last 24 hours. This suggests that ETH could be headed for more selling pressure in the coming days if market conditions remain constant.
In addition, the rising sell pressure came at around the same time that the market sentiment had been cooling down.
However, on the other hand, Ethereum demand from institutions has mostly remained positive for the most part in the last 7 business days. BlackRock remained the most dominant buyer, and this may have helped sustain short-term confidence despite the total crypto market sentiment index declining.
This was aided by the rising on-chain activity, which could potentially inject some confidence into the market. But is this observation enough to offset potential downside risks associated with the increasing selloff?
ETH Price Risks High Volatility and Potentially Large Liquidation Event
While a directional outcome is still a toss-up, market data highlighted the possibility that the directional outcome could be extremely pronounced.
For example, ETH open interest has been rising aggressively in the last 4 weeks. It peaked at the tail end of May and remained high at around $35.8 billion at the time of observation.
The high levels of open interest suggest that a directional spike could potentially trigger heavy liquidations. This, in turn, could force a short squeeze if prices rally higher or a long squeeze if a bearish outcome occurs.
The possibility of a bearish outcome was on the rise at the time of observation. This is due to the fact that spot outflows approached $200 million in the last 24 hours at the time of observation.
There was also a 10.42% spike in derivatives volumes, suggesting that the ball was in motion for ETH to break out of the short-term range in the coming weekend.
Still on the prospects of a bearish outcome, the market sentiment has been cooling down due to investor expectations of more economic disruption. However, it is worth noting that the wedge pattern squeeze zone could also limit ETH’s potential downside.
The possibility of an Ethereum price recovery towards $3,000 by the end of June was still high. Besides, with the likes of BlackRock regularly pumping liquidity into ETH, the investors remain optimistic.
News data source: kdj.com
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